On 2 March 2020, Educause released the 2020 Educause Horizon Report (Teaching and Learning Edition).
This year the report makes its first major revision of its methodology and structure without losing its essential purpose, i.e. what might give the most impacts on teaching and learning in the future. The report provides a general introduction of five macro trends influencing teaching and learning in the world and six newly emerging educational technologies and make anticipations on their scenarios and influences for the future. Below we will briefly introduce the five macro trends and six emerging technologies.
I. Five Macro Trends
2020 Horizon Report provides input across five macro trends: social, technological, economic, higher education, and political.
1. Social Trends
Teaching and learning is a human endeavour, conducted by people for the benefit of others. As such, global trends taking shape across societies and within communities – trends reflecting who we are and what we experience as persons, both individually and collectively – inevitably make their way into educational decisions and practices. The following three aspects are of special interest in the social trends category.
Well-Being and Mental Health
Education focuses not only on spreading knowledge but also on fostering virtues. As such new challenges emerge as increasing numbers of students report experiencing anxiety, depression, and related concerns, we need to navigate more frequent encounters with students seeking well-being and mental health help, since students who do not have effective intervention services or treatment available to them will likely be less successful in academic and social activities. Some online video and voice tools provide simple and fast counseling services for college and university students; Institutions in New Zealand and parts of Australia are using the Ripple app to focus on students’ feelings and eating and sleeping patterns.
Demographic Changes
Ongoing shifts in the demographics of global populations, including migration trends and patterns, are leading to a new outlook on how higher education must serve students in the future. Migration of population produces needs for online education and lasting education; International enrolments will continue to rise, which will also cause some problems in student management.
Equity and Fair Practice
Equity and diversity goals and agendas are increasingly prevalent in higher education. In some instances, institutional performance goals related to equity of completion outcomes are tied to funding. Professional development among faculty, staff, and administrators can influence the ways in which curriculum is structured, pedagogy is delivered (e.g., culturally responsive), and service and support are rendered to students and the community. Last year, Harvard University became embroiled in controversy over its race-conscious admissions policies.
2. Technological Trends
The educational experiences of instructors and learners are always scaffolded and enhanced by systems and tools, whether a paper gradebook and abacus or an online discussion forum and virtual reality lab. Those educational systems and tools often reflect wider technological advances taking hold in other industries and sectors of society, at the same time introducing both promise and risk for global higher education. Technological trends are concerned about the following three aspects.
Artificial Intelligence: Technology Implications
Artificial intelligence (AI) is already being used as part of educational services and as part of curriculum design. Increasingly it will be used by human instructors for providing feedback on student work and for helping with other “virtual teaching assistant” applications. It may also have applications for refining language translation and for improving access for students with visual or hearing impairments. Amazon has introduced the Alexa Education Skills API. A public school district in North Carolina is using Microsoft Translator to improve language options for parents and students.
Next-Generation Digital Learning Environment （NGDLE）
The next-generation digital learning environment (NGDLE) is creating a transformational shift in how institutions architect their learning ecosystems for learners and instructors. Institutions are increasingly requiring support of open standards in educational technology applications, which enable institutions to offer a more flexible learning experience to more students, synchronously and asynchronously. The agility provided by such an architecture can afford learners and instructors alike the opportunity to “think outside the box” and reconceptualize their approaches to education.
Analytics and Privacy Questions
Higher education institutions continue to invest billions of dollars in analytics capabilities, and cost-benefit implications for student privacy will become an increasingly important consideration. Institutions will need to be more proactive in protecting student and employee data and must make careful decisions around partnerships and data exchanges with other organizations, vendors, and governments. Institutional relationships with technologies, e.g. the European Union implemented the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in 2018.
3. Economic Trends
Institutions of higher education are both products of and contributors to the economies, environments, and industries that compose the global landscape. In an increasingly connected, open, and scrutinizing world, institutions are expected to be wise and judicious stewards of the resources that enable them to exist and operate. They are also expected to contribute something of value to the larger world and to effectively generate the knowledge and skills that people need to work and live—all at a reasonable cost. Absent this perceived value, institutions of higher education in many countries will likely continue to see declines in funding from supporting governments and industries. The following three aspects are of special interest in the social trends category.
Cost of Higher Education
The growth of the private education sector in countries such as Egypt, Germany, and France will see global levels of student debt continue to rise and will establish more “elite” forms of higher education. The rising cost of tuition, combined with decreased funding from public and other sources, will expand the US student debt crisis and lead to multiple long-term economic effects. Students’ independence in adulthood (e.g., purchasing a home, having children, contributing to the economy) will be impacted. Institutions need to demonstrate their value and/or adjust to economic realities with new business/funding models. The US Congress is seeking to pass the Employer Participation in Repayment Act, expanding employers’ assistance with employee student debt.
Future of Work and Skills
In order to stay relevant and sustainable, institutions will need to adjust their courses, curricula, and degree programmes to meet learners’ needs, as well as the demands of new industries and an evolving workforce. Demand for lifelong learning and skills renewal will also increase. Industries will seek to partner with organisations outside institutions of traditional higher education for skills development and workforce recruitment. The World Economic Forum predicts that at least 133 million new jobs will be generated globally by 2022 as a result of the new division of labour between humans, machines, and algorithms.
Climate Change
Sustainable living and learning will become a higher priority for higher education institutions as we continue to learn about the effects of climate change and explore strategies for mitigating those effects. More institutions will focus on online learning as a sustainable educational model as students and faculty become less willing or able to commute. Extreme global weather events and droughts will impact students’ well-being and educational attainment, particularly in rural and/or under-resourced communities.
4. Higher Education Trends
Notions of what higher education should be, of what its ultimate purpose or goals should be, and of whom it is intended to serve seem to be constantly in flux in response to larger trends and shifts in human thinking and social, political, and economic relationships. Future models of higher education, as well as future practices in teaching and learning, will need to adapt to these trends and fundamentally rethink what higher education is. Higher education trends are concerned about the following three aspects.
Changes in Student Population
It has been predicted that US college enrolments will drop by as much as 10 percent by the late 2020s. Minority students today account for roughly half of all high school graduates in the United States. Global fertility rates have decreased 50 percent since 1960, potentially leading to fewer students and presenting fiscal challenges, especially for smaller and tuition-dependent institutions. Increased student diversity (in age, ethnicity, and other factors) requires institutional leaders to rethink how to achieve their teaching and learning missions and will demand a new emphasis on holistic student success.
Alternative Pathways to Education
Institutions must rethink their degree pathways to accommodate a changing student demographic and employment landscape. Alternatives include nano- and micro-degrees, competency-based programmes, expanded online options, and portable and standards-based credentials, as well as increased collaboration and partnerships with other institutions.
Online Education
Online education is increasingly seen as a scalable means to provide courses to an increasingly nontraditional student population. Faculty must be prepared to teach in online, blended, and face-to-face modes. Higher education institutions are moving to new models for online programms, such as assessment (competency) and crediting (microcredentials and digital badging). Institutions will increasingly engage with online programme managers (OPMs) to jumpstart online programmes. California’s Online Community College initiative gives students access to courses across its community college system. In Canada, fully online student enrolments have been increasing by roughly 10 percent annually over the past five years.
5. Political Trends
Across the world and within our own communities and homes, we seem to be living through a period of significant political transformation and are experiencing political divisiveness at unprecedented levels. As these political trends continue to take shape, they will undoubtedly have a lasting impact on models and practices of higher education teaching and learning. From policy agendas and legislative battles that target educational standards and funding, to the political discourses that are taking place at campuses and in classrooms, higher education will continue to influence and be a product of the political world around it. Political trends are concerned about the following three aspects.
Decrease in Higher Education Funding
As public funding for higher education continues to decrease in the United States, institutions must pursue alternative business and funding models to sustain operations. Alternative approaches may include privatization of the industry, microcredentialing, establishing partnerships with other industries or organizations, and other more sustainable models. Meanwhile, teaching, learning, and research practices will be increasingly driven by opportunities to secure funding.
Value of Higher Education
A majority of adults in the United States believe the higher education industry is headed in the wrong direction, due either to the increasing cost of higher education or to the perceived social or political bent of higher education. As overall enrolments continue to decline, institutions will be forced to identify alternative education or business models.
Political Polarization
In some instances, heightening tensions between political worldviews have been leading to increasingly heated debates on campuses and, in other cases, to self-censorship among faculty and students who feel uncomfortable speaking up on potentially divisive issues. In the United States, legislation that could benefit higher education will become more difficult to pass through an intensely polarized Congress and entrenched political positions.